When Your Opening Day Starter is "Oh, Sh*t!"
If This Guy's Your Ace, It Could be a Long Year When perusing the interwebs earlier this week, I stumbled across the following headline on the Pioneer Press Web site: "Livan Hernandez in line to start Opening Day for Minnesota Twins." This is not the type of thing you want to see if you're a Twinkies fan, which could be why the article is tagged as one of the "most emailed." It likely ascended to those ranks via thousands of Twins fans forwarding the link to their friends with accompanying copy of "we're f-ed," or something along those lines.
Which got us to thinking...as much as we bitch and moan about the Mets, you usually can't complain much in a big market like New York. Chances are, your team is going to have a chance to be good. And, generally speaking come October, pitching makes champions. If you follow that general logic, a team's opening day starter is a decent barometer of what lies in store for the upcoming season.
If you've got a real ace, even if the rest of the rotation is somewhat shotty, you've got a chance to compete. On the other hand, if you're trotting out an also-ran, re-tread or someone who just flat-out sucks...prospects for your favorite squad? Not so good. Here's our list of "oh, sh*t" projected starters. We sympathize with their fans.
Minnesota Twins - Livan Hernandez
So, what can be said about this one. One year you're trotting out Johan Santana with a healthy fireballing Francisco Liriano nipping at his heels. You close your eyes and Torii Hunter's gone, along with Santana and Silva, and 350-lb, 50-year old Livan Hernandez is trotting out to the mound on opening day. Sure, we exaggerate (he's probably only 320), but Livan ain't getting any younger and last year's 11-11 and 4.93 ERA in the NL doesn't scream ace, in any League or language.
Texas Rangers - Kevin Millwood
In 2005, Texas signed Millwood to be their #1. The cost? Five years, $60M. In his two seasons in the Lone Star state, Millwood has transformed into what virtually every Rangers pitcher has been the past few years - a launching pad. As my good friend once suggested (after seeing the scrolling ticker score of another 13-9-type game in Arlington), "why don't they just draft nothing but pitchers one year. Seriously. Every single round. Every pick. Pitcher, pitcher, pitcher. Spend the entire offseason budget on pitchers, too." We couldn't agree more. Mill-not-so-good has compiled a pedestrain 26-26 mark since coming over to the Rangers and an ERA of 4.57.
Florida Marlins - Scott Olsen?
Wait, wasn't it like yesterday that the Marlins had this stable of great young arms? Willis, Penny, Burnett? Oh yea, they have a whole new crop of good young arms because all those other dudes got too expensive. Ahh, to be a fan of the fish. So, the Marlins may hand the ball to Olsen on opening day. He's got a live arm and great stuff. Heck, he's shut down the Metros on more than one occastion. But he's also 24 and despite all that "stuff" went 10-15 last year with an ERA near six. Take it with a grain of salt in that he wasn't playing for a playoff-caliber team, but toss in the fact that he's now rehabbing from shoulder tendinitis and it doesn't inspire a sense of confidence with Marlins faithful.
Kansas City Royals - Gil Meche
It's sad, but this could be pretty much anyone and the Royals would still make this list. Meche went 9-13 for KC last year, which is the equivalent of putting up a 20-win season anywhere else. That said, the Royals are paying this man $11m/year! For a pitcher who has compiled a 64-57 record over a seven-year career? Meche is nothing to sneeze at, but an ace? Certainly not...and absolutely not in Royals land. I can't imagine what it's like to root for a team whose season is over each year before it even begins. Speaking of which...
Baltimore Orioles - Jeremy Guthrie
I've heard this kid has tremendous talent. I'll assume that is fact. It's also fact that in four years he's racked up all of 27 starts and 12 career decisions. The good news for O's fans is that his lifetime record is 7-5...which also could be the bad news for this team considering he's currently the frontrunner for opening day starter.
Shockingly, some of the other perennial losers around the League are sending some more proven young hurlers to the bump, albeit each with some flaws. I simply couldn't include Scott Kazmir or Tom Gorzelanny on this list. Gorzo went 14-10 with an ERA under four...for the Bucs. Even someone like Aaron Harang gets a pass following a 16-6, 3.73 ERA year in Cincy.
Bottom line: for those looking to gauge your team's chances in 2008, you may want to start by taking a long look at your projected opening day hurler. If you've got an "oh sh*t" kind of guy taking the hill, it may be a long year.
Which got us to thinking...as much as we bitch and moan about the Mets, you usually can't complain much in a big market like New York. Chances are, your team is going to have a chance to be good. And, generally speaking come October, pitching makes champions. If you follow that general logic, a team's opening day starter is a decent barometer of what lies in store for the upcoming season.
If you've got a real ace, even if the rest of the rotation is somewhat shotty, you've got a chance to compete. On the other hand, if you're trotting out an also-ran, re-tread or someone who just flat-out sucks...prospects for your favorite squad? Not so good. Here's our list of "oh, sh*t" projected starters. We sympathize with their fans.
Minnesota Twins - Livan Hernandez
So, what can be said about this one. One year you're trotting out Johan Santana with a healthy fireballing Francisco Liriano nipping at his heels. You close your eyes and Torii Hunter's gone, along with Santana and Silva, and 350-lb, 50-year old Livan Hernandez is trotting out to the mound on opening day. Sure, we exaggerate (he's probably only 320), but Livan ain't getting any younger and last year's 11-11 and 4.93 ERA in the NL doesn't scream ace, in any League or language.
Texas Rangers - Kevin Millwood
In 2005, Texas signed Millwood to be their #1. The cost? Five years, $60M. In his two seasons in the Lone Star state, Millwood has transformed into what virtually every Rangers pitcher has been the past few years - a launching pad. As my good friend once suggested (after seeing the scrolling ticker score of another 13-9-type game in Arlington), "why don't they just draft nothing but pitchers one year. Seriously. Every single round. Every pick. Pitcher, pitcher, pitcher. Spend the entire offseason budget on pitchers, too." We couldn't agree more. Mill-not-so-good has compiled a pedestrain 26-26 mark since coming over to the Rangers and an ERA of 4.57.
Florida Marlins - Scott Olsen?
Wait, wasn't it like yesterday that the Marlins had this stable of great young arms? Willis, Penny, Burnett? Oh yea, they have a whole new crop of good young arms because all those other dudes got too expensive. Ahh, to be a fan of the fish. So, the Marlins may hand the ball to Olsen on opening day. He's got a live arm and great stuff. Heck, he's shut down the Metros on more than one occastion. But he's also 24 and despite all that "stuff" went 10-15 last year with an ERA near six. Take it with a grain of salt in that he wasn't playing for a playoff-caliber team, but toss in the fact that he's now rehabbing from shoulder tendinitis and it doesn't inspire a sense of confidence with Marlins faithful.
Kansas City Royals - Gil Meche
It's sad, but this could be pretty much anyone and the Royals would still make this list. Meche went 9-13 for KC last year, which is the equivalent of putting up a 20-win season anywhere else. That said, the Royals are paying this man $11m/year! For a pitcher who has compiled a 64-57 record over a seven-year career? Meche is nothing to sneeze at, but an ace? Certainly not...and absolutely not in Royals land. I can't imagine what it's like to root for a team whose season is over each year before it even begins. Speaking of which...
Baltimore Orioles - Jeremy Guthrie
I've heard this kid has tremendous talent. I'll assume that is fact. It's also fact that in four years he's racked up all of 27 starts and 12 career decisions. The good news for O's fans is that his lifetime record is 7-5...which also could be the bad news for this team considering he's currently the frontrunner for opening day starter.
Shockingly, some of the other perennial losers around the League are sending some more proven young hurlers to the bump, albeit each with some flaws. I simply couldn't include Scott Kazmir or Tom Gorzelanny on this list. Gorzo went 14-10 with an ERA under four...for the Bucs. Even someone like Aaron Harang gets a pass following a 16-6, 3.73 ERA year in Cincy.
Bottom line: for those looking to gauge your team's chances in 2008, you may want to start by taking a long look at your projected opening day hurler. If you've got an "oh sh*t" kind of guy taking the hill, it may be a long year.
UPDATE: We'd like to thank The Sporting Blog for linking to us this morning, but, moreso, for pointing out an absolutely inexcusable omission. To my brother-in-law, who is now the proud owner of a Washington Nationals partial season ticket plan, enjoy Shawn Hill...or perhaps John Patterson or Jason Bergmann. Wow. Now, THAT is depressing.
Labels:
Opening Day Starters
9 comments:
Um, I'm a Nats 20 game ticket holder
Javy Vazquez opens for the White Sox.
mildly concerning, anon, given injury history of late. but, bottom line, the guy went 15-8 last year with an AL ERA under 4. you could do worse.
There's a lot of things you can pick on the Royals for, but the top of the rotation isn't one of them. Meche was one of the ten best pitchers in the AL last year; Bannister almost (should have?) won ROY; Greinke could win a Cy Young if he ever gets out of his own head.
Now, if you want to write a column on 3-4-5 hitters that make you say "Oh sh*t....
Jayhawkowens - you make some valid points...particularly on Bannister. As a Mets fan, that is another one of those regrettable trades...on the whole Zack Greinke could win a Cy Young thing, though...is this happening in KC? If so, this Royals Cy YOung might as well take place in an alternate universe...b/c it is a fantasy.
Not to piss in your Kool-Aid, here, but didn't the Yankees start Carl "OOOOH IT HURTS" Pavano on Opening Day last year?
I get your point, but in the long run it's still only one game.
cashtray - i hear ya. but the yankees are a bad example. they play outside of the rules that govern every other team in MLB.
Yeah, I know. Horrendous example. And the Yankees should burn in hell, anyway. (Red Sox fan, here.)
I have kind of an unhealthy interest in Gil Meche, though. Why, I couldn't tell you.
ES - I heard the new Nats stadium's going to have excellent snacks, so I'm still pretty pumped to have those tickets...
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